Why?

Why?

Anybody in the media industry who ever had me as their coach at an AMASA Workshop, would remember I always advocated that teams create a poster at the start of the weekend and stick it in a prominent position in their work-zone. A poster with only one word on it. The word that would inform all their subsequent strategic media decisions and enable their thought process to stay on track.

The word “WHY?”.

If you don’t know why you’re doing something, your media strategy will just end up doing what you did last year. Or worse still, doing what everyone else did last year. And of course, given the procurement imperative, you’ll be under pressure to do it cheaper.

Every media strategy is a specific response to a marketing communication challenge and a corresponding set of marketing objectives. Or at least it should be, because when it comes to media strategy, if you don’t know where you are going then any road will take you there.

Even the Cheshire Cat in Alice in Wonderland knew that.

Or perhaps even more important when it comes to optimizing media investment, if you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll never know when you’ve arrived.  Spending the media budget cost-efficiently can never be an outcome. Cost-efficiency is a process input that enables the strategist to balance the exposure dynamics of the campaign. To create more media-pressure.

But remember …

Media-pressure without results is called wastage.

There are only 3 possible outcomes to any advertising campaign. Only 3!

1. It worked.
2. It didn’t work.
3. I don’t know.

If you don’t know “why” you are engaging in a particular media activity, then you cannot possibly know whether it worked or not. It is truly staggering to discover how many advertisers have “I don’t know” as their default position.

The recently published WFA white paper on Creating a global culture of Marketing Effectiveness defines marketing effectiveness as a process of improving business performance from marketing activities which is made easier and more impactful by 4 contributing factors. People. Process. Data Tools and Measurement and Focus. Focus is defined as a clear vision, complete with a roadmap that communicates how each step will create business value and help create organisational alignment.

Complete with a roadmap. That’s the thing about a road. If you build it – they will come.

Interestingly though, the report concludes that marketers globally agree they are “better at delivering our plans than we are at understanding why we are doing the activity in the first place”. In other words, marketers are too focused on procurement parameters and the tactical delivery of activity, often at the bottom end of the funnel.

Media strategy has been eroded to the point where implementation and pricing, rather than in-market effectiveness, are the primary focus. And yet, when it comes to effective media strategy, the phrase in the Warc Future of Media Strategy 2022 report that resonated most with strategists globally is “going upstream to create a downstream solution”.

The recently published Warc Future of Media Strategy 2023 builds on that narrative. Over the next 12 months strategists (54%) continue to see “working on upstream business problems” as their single biggest opportunity for positive business growth. Up from 39% in 2021.  

Unfortunately, this same whitepaper reports that reduced compensation for strategic services, as a result of inflationary pressures, is the single biggest threat to strategists globally. Only 44% of strategists globally expect the size of their strategic team to increase in the coming 12 months (down from 65% in 2021).

More work for less pay is rarely an effective incentive for excellence.

Marketers and strategists agree. We have lost Focus. We need to go “upstream” to create clear roadmaps for marketing, advertising and media so that we can deliver on the vision, measure the outcomes and create value downstream.

But we can’t do that without investing in people. Advertisers and agency management alike.

Which brings us back to the issue of media industry training and mentoring. Transformation without skills-transfer and training is not empowerment. It’s abandonment.

When I gaze into the abyss of terminal inertia which has beset the various bodies traditionally dedicated to skills transfer and sustainable development for the media industry in Mzansi, the abyss stares back at me. And it has only one question.

Why?

RAMS, Radio and the Repertoire of the rolling maul.

Traditionally, the release of new RAMS radio listenership data is greeted by media strategists in Mzansi with all the excitement usually reserved by rugby fans for yet another confusing penalty during a test match. This week’s release of the BRC RAMS AMPLIFY 2023 Q1 data has proved to be no exception.

Critics of the modern game of rugby do tend to agree though, that it’s not the rules themselves which are the bone of contention, but rather the inconsistent application of those rules. Even Donald Trump is more likely to blow the whistle on a hooker who has committed a technical infringement, than the average rugby referee.

So, when it comes to BRC RAMS AMPLIFY 2023 Q1 it is reassuring to observe the overall consistency and stability of the data. In a quantum shift mediaverse, stable audience data is a win for researchers, radio broadcasters and advertisers alike.

At a national level, nothing has really changed. Past 7-day listenership to radio remains high (75%), although it is reported that this represents a “significant decline in listenership” compared to Q3 2022 (76%). At the 95% level of confidence nogal! Now, whilst we all appreciate the due diligence applied by researchers in the pursuit of statistical excellence in media research, I can predict at the 100% level of confidence that this particular fact will have absolutely no impact on radio advertising investment over the next 12 months.

That is not to say the #RA23Q1 report is without genuine points of interest for media strategists. As always, when it comes to media research, it’s All Done with Mirrors.

It is when the decline in weekly listenership is considered in conjunction with time spent listening that the implicit behavioural shift becomes a little more intriguing. Almost a third of waking hours are spent listening to radio (5hrs 06mins) each day but this represents a softening in this particular listening metric. Time spent listening is down 2,5% from Q3 2022 (5hrs 14mins).

Listenership to radio might be stagnant but listening behaviour is not. It is when we look at the growth of Listening on Demand (LOD), particularly amongst younger consumers, that the future of audio advertising becomes clear. As an industry it would be considerably more productive to focus less on miniscule quantitative shifts in traditional radio listenership and focus more on discernable shifts in human listening behaviour across all audio platforms.

The really valuable insights derived from BRC RAMS AMPLIFY 2023 Q1 are those that highlight behavioural displacement of listeners, rather than minuscule shifts in radio station audiences. And no insight embedded in RAMS AMPLIFY database is more valuable to users than the Media Repertoire Score.  

The Media Repertoire Score is a measure of this displacement across 13 alternative media platforms (excluding radio) that are reported in #RA23Q1. MRS provides a functional lens for understanding the implications of continuous partial attention (CPA) in the media landscape and the need to develop holistic media strategies.

The adult population of South Africa has an RMS of 5,3 (excluding radio) but the further up the socio-economic scale we move the higher the RMS. The SEM 7-10 segment has an RMS of 6,7.

Interestingly, population targets that have a broader media repertoire tend to have higher radio reach, further highlighting radio’s popularity as a medium consumed in parallel (and often simultaneously) with a wide variety of media types.

But it is when we compare the insights generated by the Media Repertoire Score with a popular media consumption measure from the dim and distant media past, Media Imperatives, that we realise just how far effective media strategy has evolved in terms of embracing the dynamics of the media Fusion Zone.

In the past, Media Imperatives provided deep-vertical insight into consumption by individual media type. Consumers were divided into Light, Medium and Heavy (readers, listeners or viewers) which assisted planners in optimizing investment within each media silo. A brilliant research initiative at the time but offering no insight into balancing investment in the media Fusion Zone.

In a sense the Media Repertoire Score is to the media Fusion Zone landscape what the rolling maul is to modern rugby. Rugby purists may reflect fondly on the days when we all understood the rules of the game, which dictated that all 15 players in a team should stand neatly in their allotted positions, waiting for the ball to be passed to them.

But the game has moved on.

Nobody in the world truly understands the fusion of human energy and intimacy that fuels the rolling maul. With the possible exception of Boris Johnson of course. But the players who have studied the rules that govern the rolling maul (and there are rules) will probably win the Rugby World Cup this year.

As they say – Fuse it or Lose it!

When the Boom comes … Will you be a Front-runner?

In posing the question what happens when the boom comes most readers have probably already assumed that this is yet another travel guide to post pandemic paradise.

But if there is one thing we’re really good at in the advertising industry its dusting off old windmills to tilt at.

I recently unearthed a ground breaking report which analyses the advertising and sales patterns of over 100 companies for a period of 8 years. The Van Diver Study grapples with some of the big issues facing advertisers today. What is the relationship between advertising and sales? Will increased advertising cause a corresponding spurt in sales? How long before sales begin to rise?  

All valid questions in 2022, particularly in a landscape where marketing short-termism is now acknowledged as a major problem for advertising campaigns. In a recent blog Seth Godin reminds us that we should always “consider the long-term impact of short-term thinking”.

So against that backdrop, the Van Diver Study offers some valuable axioms

1. Advertising and sales follow parallel paths – sales decline after advertising declines
2. Short-term advertising makes no allowance for long-term growth
3. Companies that curtail advertising during a recession recoup slower than competitors that maintain progressive advertising

And the Van Diver Study even invokes Newtons First Law of Inertia. And when it comes to media in the 21^st century anybody who wants to argue with Newton is just looking to get hit on the head by an apple.

“It takes a certain amount of time, and a certain applied force to overcome a given inertia – the inertia in this case being public acceptance of the company and product. The force being the intensity of advertising”.  

But here’s the really interesting part. Vernon H. Van Diver did his research between 1950 and 1957.

When it comes to the fundamentals of media and advertising maybe things haven’t changed that much after all?  

But as Don Quixote said all those years ago “perhaps to be too practical is madness”. So for those like myself who attribute the demise of deep vertical thinking in media to the emergence of PowerPoint, it is also quiet cathartic to read that the “Van Diver study is somewhat lengthy being illustrated by numerous graphs, charts and case histories”.

Yes that’s right graphs and charts. All the way back in the 50s. Who knew. Seems the rot set in a long time ago.

And speaking of the rot setting in, we might do well do reference the Don again when he says

For neither good nor evil can last for ever; and so it follows that as evil has lasted a long time, good must now be close at hand.

So while the Van Diver Study was ahead of its time in some respects there is one grinding anachronism which wouldn’t past muster in 2022. Can you spot the mistake?

The Van Diver Study Axioms for (some) Media Planners

Oi vey! Vernon H. Where’s Dale Carnegie when you need him.

When it comes to industry transformation, let’s hope the good really is close at hand.

It’s all done with Mirrors – Pass the Smarties

In the past week, much has been made in the media press of shifts in the pattern of media investment in Mzansi based largely on the Nielsen WizzAd+ database. But Nielsen WizzAd+ effectively only reports adspend in traditional media at an undiscounted rate card level.  

To fully understand the dynamic of NMI (net media investment) in Mzansi, we need to factor in estimated volume discounts and we also need to factor in the “invisible” media investment going into the all too visible digital and social media platforms. Anecdotal insights would put that at about 30% relative to global patterns which seem to be plateauing out at 50%.

Now don’t go down that rabbit hole Alice. Nielsen WizzAd+ is a great database and as media strategist I’d be lost without it. But reviewing adspend in traditional media at rate card level, without factoring in discounts, is a bit like conflating Smarties and calories. 

There are 188 calories in a 40g box of Smarties but only 38 Smarties. And in the current media environment, it’s pretty much the same ratio when it comes to adspend reflected at rate card vs actual media exposure purchased.

Of course when it comes to Smarties a big box is always going to be better than a small box. There are 72 Smarties and 329 calories in a 70g box. That’s an additional 7% Smarties at a relative 28% price discount due to economies of scale. And it’s the same with media discounts.

In boxing parlance A good big ‘un will always beat a good little ‘un!

When it comes to media discount to advertisers, contrary to the widely propagated narrative, size counts but not necessarily the size of the media agency. In Mzansi the bigger the advertiser the bigger the discount. Not to say that media agencies don’t negotiate based on their size but it’s a moot point how much this flexing of the media muscles translates into actual cost recovery to advertisers.

In fact if you can find anything in the K2 Report on media transparency that isn’t happening here in Mzansi then I’ll buy you the biggest box of Smarties you’ve ever seen.

Of course, as a small agency you can still ensure that your clients get a fair shake as long as you box smart. But you gotta rumble! In the words of The Greatest you gotta

Float like a butterfly. Sting like a bee.

So when we see a list of the Top 30 advertisers and reports that a certain advertiser broke through R2billion mark in traditional media, we need to think of that in terms of calories rather than Smarties.

Of course this doesn’t alter the Top 30 advertisers, nor does it impact the pecking order. But although we can’t draw absolute conclusions in terms of the net volume of adspend (media smarties) without adjusting Nielsen WizzAd+ data, the database is still a great tool for discerning relative advantage in terms of inferred volume of exposure.

As always in media It’s All Done with Mirrors. You have to change the lens.  

That’s why when it comes to using Nielsen WizzAd+ for developing media strategy it’s often more useful to focus on tangible metrics like “seconds of advertising” rather than gross cost. Did Unilever really break the R2b adspend mark? Probably not if we apply the Calories:Smarties Ratio. But did their investment generate 6,1 million seconds of commercial time? Yes! That’s an average of around 550 TVC flightings a day?

And that’s a lot of Smarties in anyone’s language.

If we look at rate card spend we have to factor out media inflation and discounts before we get to bedrock. But when we look at TV secs we get a much better idea of the intention and direction of the advertiser. So irrespective of Rand value Unilever did generate 6,1m TV secs in 2021. More than any other advertiser. Not unexpected. But what is really interesting is that they flighted 45% more TV secs than they had in 2019 and 77% more than in 2020.

Linear TV is dead? I think not.

Interestingly enough Multichoice and Showmax collectively generated 95 million seconds of “self-promotion”. For every Unilever TVC a viewer in Mzansi saw in 2021 they saw 15 ads for DSTV. Maybe there’s another reason that subscribers reviewing their relationship with DSTV?

I’m with Billy Joel on this one. You can speak your mind but not on my time.

Advertising in the Post AMPS Landscape – Must be the season of the witch.

However unfamiliar and unpredictable the marketing landscape may appear at times, when it comes to the quantum evolution of advertising and communication, there’s simply no turning back the hands on the digital clock.

As a child of the 60s I can really relate to Donovan (No! Not Dylan. The other one.) when he sang

When I look out my window, Many sights to see

And when I look in my window, So many different people to be

They’re strange, so strange, It’s very strange to me

As an marketer or a media strategist in 2021 when you look out the window do you wish that things would just look the same as they did yesterday? Who do you see in the window? Someone who longs for the familiar and predicable old days of advertising? The reality is that successful marketing and communication today is increasingly measured in terms of the agility of response to mystifying and even at times mystical change.

You got to pick up every stitch, Must be the season of the witch

More than that though. it’s about becoming a catalyst for change and in this first of the Ebony & Ivory Thought Leadership series we take a look at the media world through five focus points outlined in seminal whitepapers from WFA and Warc

• Functionality
• Fusion
• Full Lifecyle
• Full Funnel
• Future Proof

For some people the demise of AMPS in 2015 was the end of the world. For others it represents the start of a brave new world. Whatever your view, the simple reality is that where once there was a monolithic database called AMPS there is now a virtual cloud of databases which collectively offer more holistic insight into the complexity of consumer behaviour and media consumption than ever before.

The WFA Future of Insights project highlights the need to embrace this plethora of data by transitioning from the role of data Librarian to becoming an agile insights Explorer or a Strategic Consultant. A shift from data collection and distribution to applied functionality. Marketers don’t need more media data they need functional media strategies that go beyond audience quantification and to embrace Full Funnel attribution to marketing outcomes. For all media formats – not just digital

From a media perspective, at the core of this agility lies the recognition that a standalone single-source database is longer a viable option for planning in a holistic mediaverse. There is growing global recognition, driven by the WFA Framework for Cross-Media Measurement, that the key to navigating the marketing and media data tsunami lies in building a globally uniform lexicon of concepts and definitions of media consumption.

That lexicon should include common principles for market segmentation which accommodate both the sell-side (media owner) and buy side (marketer) drive for Full Lifecycle media measurement and attribution. A lexicon that can be used to fuel large scale data fusion.

Data fusion is the process of integrating multiple data sources by using common variables to match two or more datasets at the respondent level and creating one unified database which will portray the Full Lifecycle of all media platforms. A holistic and consistent representation of the mediaverse which includes the digital metaverse.

In order to Future Proof industry transformation we need to ensure that all these developments must be accompanied by world class training and skills development because transformation without training is really just another form of abandonment.

Ultimately the key to Future Proofing the advertising industry lies in full scale and totally inclusive collaboration between all industry stakeholders.

When I look over my shoulder, What do you think I see?

Some other cat lookin’ over, His shoulder at me

It’s time to stop looking and pointing at each other in the mirror.  It’s time to break down the industry silos. There’s no going back. We’re all in this crazy kaleideoscopic mediaverse together.

Must be the Season of the Witch

Watch the presentation on YouTube